After one week of NFL action, the contrarian approach continues to provide profitable results for bettors. Last weeks system matches were 2-1 against the spread (ATS), which pushes the record to 27-20 ATS (57.4 percent) since the inception of this article last year.As I have previously explained, the goal of this column it to extract value by capitalizing on market overreactions and exploiting artificially inflated lines created by public perception and betting habits.Since the start of the 2003 season, a majority of spread bets have been placed on the favorite in more than 81 percent of all regular season games. Oddsmakers understand this tendency and shade their lines to account for the inevitable influx of public money on the chalk. These shaded lines have created additional value on the underdog.Over the past 13 seasons, underdogs have covered at aChris Tillman Jersey . 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Surely Ortons name isnt the first that comes to mind for fans wanting a change after years of damaging interceptions, fumbles or, most infamously, the field goal flub when Romo dropped the snap on a kick that could have won his first playoff game in 2006. Manny Machado Jersey . -- Golden State Warriors coach Mark Jackson asked his players a simple question during Fridays morning shootaround: How many of them had ever been on a team 14 games over .Saturday, September 24Melbourne Storm ($1.40) vs Canberra Raiders ($3.05), AAMI Park at 7:40pmTeam news:The Storms controversial wrestling tactics have come under fire again this week with the Cowboys lodging an official complaint with the NRL and this unnecessary distraction could benefit the Raiders as they prepare for Saturday nights preliminary final.Melbourne have been forced to defend their tactics all week while Canberra have gone about their business quietly and with little fuss which will suit Raiders coach Ricky Stuart.The Storm suffered a major blow last week with hulking forward Nelson Asofa Solomona ruled out for the season but expect to have lock Dale Finucane available after he suffered an ankle injury in the qualifying final against the Cowboys.The Raiders are a lot more settled this week -- Josh Hodgson (ankle) and Blake Austin (hand) overcame serious injuries to play against the Panthers and will line up again. Austin has also revealed he rolled an ankle against Penrith but declared himself a certain starter against Melbourne.Key head-to-head: Cameron Smith vs Josh HodgsonIt is the NRLs smartest player against arguably the NRLs best player this year.Cameron Smith needs no introduction and there is no end to his talent, skills and ability -- he manipulates his team, the opposition and even the officials like few ever have.Hes not big so wont run over his opponents, hes not fast so wont run around them either but he understands the game more than anyone else and his scheming earns him space and time to set up his team mates to finish off the Storms set plays to devastating perfection.Josh Hodgson has been a revelation since switching from the English Super League to the NRL. He arrived at Canberra with little hype or fanfare but has built a huge reputation for himself in quick time.Hodgson was awarded the Mal Meninga Medal alongside Josh Papalii for the Raiders Player of the Year this week and is considered one of the leading contenders to become the first Englishman to win the Dally M Medal.Hodgson proved in last weeks semi-final win against Penrith that he is as tough as he is talented. He defied everybody by overcoming a serious ankle injury to play a leading role in the Raiders win and it was also later revealed he spent most of the week in bed with a virus so a semi-final against Smith will pose no fears for him.Storm:?1. Cameron Munster, 2. Suliasi Vunivalu, 3. William Chambers, 4. Cheyse Blair, 5. Marika Koroibete, 6. Blake Green, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Jesse Bromwich, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Jordan McLean, 11. Kevin Proctor, 12. Tohu Harris, 13. Dale Finucane. Interchange: 14. Kenny Bromwich, 15. Tim Glasby, 16. Christian WWelch, 17.dddddddddddd Ben Hampton, 20. Matt White, 21. Felise KaufusiRaiders:?1. Jack Wighton, 2. Edrick Lee, 3. Jarrod Croker (c), 4. Joey Leilua, 5. Jordan Rapana, 6. Blake Austin, 7. Aidan Sezer, 8. Junior Paulo, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. Shannon Boyd, 11. Josh Papalii, 12. Elliott Whitehead, 13. Sia Soliola. Interchange: 14. Kurt Baptiste, 15. Luke Bateman, 16. Paul Vaughan, 17. Joe TapineKey Stats:The Storm boast a dominant winning record against the Raiders of 70.3 percentThe Raiders won their only meeting with the Storm this season but have not won in Melbourne since 2013Storm halfback Cooper Cronk will become the second Melbourne player behind Cameron Smith to reach 300 NRL appearanceUBET verdict:$1.40 Storm, $3.05 RaidersIt is only a few weeks ago that Canberra defeated Melbourne in Canberra, but the betting trend on their match in Melbourne on Saturday night suggests that the Storm will avenge that loss, and go on to play in the Grand Final next week. The other worrying thing with the Raiders is that they have been outscored by their opponents (22-120 in the second half of the 2 finals matches they have played so far. The Storm are relentless in attack and defence, and the inexperience in finals has to be a major concern for Raiders fans against a side with plenty of the same. All of the money has been with Melbourne who have already been cut to $1.40 from $1.45, and judging by what UBET customers have been doing to date, that price may well disappear as game day approachesWeather:?An 80 percent chance of showers late in the day with expected temperature of 15 degrees at kick-off.Prediction:?Canberra have been entertaining, gutsy and captured everyones imagination this year but they now come face to face with arguably the NRLs most professional, experienced and ruthless outfit.This game looms as a battle between offence and defence - the Raiders have been the most prolific scorers in the NRL this year while the Storm are the best defensive unit in the competition.It is often said that defence wins big matches and this is just one reason why I lean towards the Storm to prevail in this one. The other reasons I favour Melbourne include the fact they have too much world class experience, are playing at home and Canberra havent played at this stage of a season in 22 years.This is exactly the type of situation that Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk thrive on and I just get the feeling their calmness and big match experience will sway the result in favour of Melbourne.Tip: Storm by 4Enter your ESPNfootytips NRL selections ' ' '